Imagining the Future of Equipment Finance

What Is Forex Trading ? – A Definition & Introduction What is Forex? – The basics… Basically, the Forex market is where banks, businesses, governments, investors and traders come to exchange and speculate on currencies. The Forex market is also referred to as the ‘Fx market’, ‘Currency market’, ‘Foreign exchange currency market’ or ‘Foreign currency market’, and it is the largest and most liquid market in the world with an average daily turnover of $3.98 trillion. The Fx market is open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week with the most important world trading centers being located in London, New York, Tokyo, Zurich, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Singapore, Paris, and Sydney. It should be noted that there is no central marketplace for the Forex market; trading is instead said to be conducted ‘over the counter’; it’s not like stocks where there is a central marketplace with all orders processed like the NYSE. Forex is a product quoted by all the major banks, and not all banks will have the exact same price. Now, the broker platforms take all theses feeds from the different banks and the quotes we see from our broker are an approximate average of them. It’s the broker who is effectively transacting the trade and taking the other side of it…they ‘make the market’ for you. When you buy a currency pair…your broker is selling it to you, not ‘another trader’. • A brief history of the Forex market Ok, I admit, this part is going to be a little bit boring, but it’s important to have some basic background knowledge of the history of the Forex market so that you know a little bit about why it exists and how it got here. So here is the history of the Forex market in a nutshell: In 1876, something called the gold exchange standard was implemented. Basically it said that all paper currency had to be backed by solid gold; the idea here was to stabilize world currencies by pegging them to the price of gold. It was a good idea in theory, but in reality it created boom-bust patterns which ultimately led to the demise of the gold standard. The gold standard was dropped around the beginning of World War 2 as major European countries did not have enough gold to support all the currency they were printing to pay for large military projects. Although the gold standard was ultimately dropped, the precious metal never lost its spot as the ultimate form of monetary value. The world then decided to have fixed exchange rates that resulted in the U.S. dollar being the primary reserve currency and that it would be the only currency backed by gold, this is known as the ‘Bretton Woods System’ and it happened in 1944 (I know you super excited to know that). In 1971 the U.S. declared that it would no longer exchange gold for U.S. dollars that were held in foreign reserves, this marked the end of the Bretton Woods System. It was this break down of the Bretton Woods System that ultimately led to the mostly global acceptance of floating foreign exchange rates in 1976. This was effectively the “birth” of the current foreign currency exchange market, although it did not become widely electronically traded until about the mid 1990s. (OK! Now let’s move on to some more entertaining topics!)… What is Forex Trading? Forex trading as it relates to retail traders (like you and I) is the speculation on the price of one currency against another. For example, if you think the euro is going to rise against the U.S. dollar, you can buy the EURUSD currency pair low and then (hopefully) sell it at a higher price to make a profit. Of course, if you buy the euro against the dollar (EURUSD), and the U.S. dollar strengthens, you will then be in a losing position. So, it’s important to be aware of the risk involved in trading Forex, and not only the reward. • Why is the Forex market so popular? Being a Forex trader offers the most amazing potential lifestyle of any profession in the world. It’s not easy to get there, but if you are determined and disciplined, you can make it happen. Here’s a quick list of skills you will need to reach your goals in the Forex market: Ability – to take a loss without becoming emotional Confidence – to believe in yourself and your trading strategy, and to have no fear Dedication – to becoming the best Forex trader you can be Discipline – to remain calm and unemotional in a realm of constant temptation (the market) Flexibility – to trade changing market conditions successfully Focus – to stay concentrated on your trading plan and to not stray off course Logic – to look at the market from an objective and straight forward perspective Organization – to forge and reinforce positive trading habits Patience – to wait for only the highest-probability trading strategies according to your plan Realism – to not think you are going to get rich quick and understand the reality of the market and trading Savvy – to take advantage of your trading edge when it arises and be aware of what is happening in the market at all times Self-control – to not over-trade and over-leverage your trading account As traders, we can take advantage of the high leverage and volatility of the Forex market by learning and mastering and effective Forex trading strategy, building an effective trading plan around that strategy, and following it with ice-cold discipline. Money management is key here; leverage is a double-edged sword and can make you a lot of money fast or lose you a lot of money fast. The key to money management in Forex trading is to always know the exact dollar amount you have at risk before entering a trade and be TOTALLY OK with losing that amount of money, because any one trade could be a loser. More on money management later in the course. • Who trades Forex and why? Banks – The interbank market allows for both the majority of commercial Forex transactions and large amounts of speculative trading each day. Some large banks will trade billions of dollars, daily. Sometimes this trading is done on behalf of customers, however much is done by proprietary traders who are trading for the bank’s own account. Companies – Companies need to use the foreign exchange market to pay for goods and services from foreign countries and also to sell goods or services in foreign countries. An important part of the daily Forex market activity comes from companies looking to exchange currency in order to transact in other countries. Governments / Central banks – A country’s central bank can play an important role in the foreign exchange markets. They can cause an increase or decrease in the value of their nation’s currency by trying to control money supply, inflation, and (or) interest rates. They can use their substantial foreign exchange reserves to try and stabilize the market. Hedge funds – Somewhere around 70 to 90% of all foreign exchange transactions are speculative in nature. This means, the person or institutions that bought or sold the currency has no plan of actually taking delivery of the currency; instead, the transaction was executed with sole intention of speculating on the price movement of that particular currency. Retail speculators (you and I) are small cheese compared to the big hedge funds that control and speculate with billions of dollars of equity each day in the currency markets. Individuals – If you have ever traveled to a different country and exchanged your money into a different currency at the airport or bank, you have already participated in the foreign currency exchange market. Investors – Investment firms who manage large portfolios for their clients use the Fx market to facilitate transactions in foreign securities. For example, an investment manager controlling an international equity portfolio needs to use the Forex market to purchase and sell several currency pairs in order to pay for foreign securities they want to purchase. Retail Forex traders – Finally, we come to retail Forex traders (you and I). The retail Forex trading industry is growing everyday with the advent of Forex trading platforms and their ease of accessibility on the internet. Retail Forex traders access the market indirectly either through a broker or a bank. There are two main types of retail Forex brokers that provide us with the ability to speculate on the currency market: brokers and dealers. Brokers work as an agent for the trader by trying to find the best price in the market and executing on behalf of the customer. For this, they charge a commission on top of the price obtained in the market. Dealers are also called market makers because they ‘make the market’ for the trader and act as the counter-party to their transactions, they quote a price they are willing to deal at and are compensated through the spread, which is the difference between the buy and sell price (more on this later). Advantages of Trading the Forex Market: • Forex is the largest market in the world, with daily volumes exceeding $3 trillion per day. This means dense liquidity which makes it easy to get in and out of positions. • Trade whenever you want: There is no opening bell in the Forex market. You can enter or exit a trade whenever you want from Sunday around 5pm EST to Friday around 4pm EST. • Ease of access: You can fund your trading account with as little as $250 at many retail brokers and begin trading the same day in some cases. Straight through order execution allows you to trade at the click of a mouse. • Fewer currency pairs to focus on, instead of getting lost trying to analyze thousands of stocks • Freedom to trade anywhere in the world with the only requirements being a laptop and internet connection. • Commission-free trading with many retail market-makers and overall lower transaction costs than stocks and commodities. • Volatility allows traders to profit in any market condition and provides for high-probability weekly trading opportunities. Also, there is no structural market bias like the long bias of the stock market, so traders have equal opportunity to profit in rising or falling markets. While the forex market is clearly a great market to trade, I would note to all beginners that trading carries both the potential for reward and risk. Many people come into the markets thinking only about the reward and ignoring the risks involved, this is the fastest way to lose all of your trading account money. If you want to get started trading the Fx market on the right track, it’s critical that you are aware of and accept the fact that you could lose on any given trade you take. Forex Trading Terminology The Forex market comes with its very own set of terms and jargon. So, before you go any deeper into learning how to trade the Fx market, it’s important you understand some of the basic Forex terminology that you will encounter on your trading journey… • Basic Forex terms: Cross rate – The currency exchange rate between two currencies, both of which are not the official currencies of the country in which the exchange rate quote is given in. This phrase is also sometimes used to refer to currency quotes which do not involve the U.S. dollar, regardless of which country the quote is provided in. For example, if an exchange rate between the British pound and the Japanese yen was quoted in an American newspaper, this would be considered a cross rate in this context, because neither the pound or the yen is the standard currency of the U.S. However, if the exchange rate between the pound and the U.S. dollar were quoted in that same newspaper, it would not be considered a cross rate because the quote involves the U.S. official currency. Exchange Rate – The value of one currency expressed in terms of another. For example, if EUR/USD is 1.3200, 1 Euro is worth US$1.3200. Pip – The smallest increment of price movement a currency can make. Also called point or points. For example, 1 pip for the EUR/USD = 0.0001 and 1 pip for the USD/JPY = 0.01. Leverage – Leverage is the ability to gear your account into a position greater than your total account margin. For instance, if a trader has $1,000 of margin in his account and he opens a $100,000 position, he leverages his account by 100 times, or 100:1. If he opens a $200,000 position with $1,000 of margin in his account, his leverage is 200 times, or 200:1. Increasing your leverage magnifies both gains and losses. To calculate the leverage used, divide the total value of your open positions by the total margin balance in your account. For example, if you have $10,000 of margin in your account and you open one standard lot of USD/JPY (100,000 units of the base currency) for $100,000, your leverage ratio is 10:1 ($100,000 / $10,000). If you open one standard lot of EUR/USD for $150,000 (100,000 x EURUSD 1.5000) your leverage ratio is 15:1 ($150,000 / $10,000). Margin – The deposit required to open or maintain a position. Margin can be either “free” or “used”. Used margin is that amount which is being used to maintain an open position, whereas free margin is the amount available to open new positions. With a $1,000 margin balance in your account and a 1% margin requirement to open a position, you can buy or sell a position worth up to a notional $100,000. This allows a trader to leverage his account by up to 100 times or a leverage ratio of 100:1. If a trader’s account falls below the minimum amount required to maintain an open position, he will receive a “margin call” requiring him to either add more money into his or her account or to close the open position. Most brokers will automatically close a trade when the margin balance falls below the amount required to keep it open. The amount required to maintain an open position is dependent on the broker and could be 50% of the original margin required to open the trade. Spread – The difference between the sell quote and the buy quote or the bid and offer price. For example, if EUR/USD quotes read 1.3200/03, the spread is the difference between 1.3200 and 1.3203, or 3 pips. In order to break even on a trade, a position must move in the direction of the trade by an amount equal to the spread. • The major Forex pairs and their nicknames: • Understanding Forex currency pair quotes: You will need to understand how to properly read a currency pair quote before you start trading them. So, let’s get started with this: The exchange rate of two currencies is quoted in a pair, such as the EURUSD or the USDJPY. The reason for this is because in any foreign exchange transaction you are simultaneously buying one currency and selling another. If you were to buy the EURUSD and the euro strengthened against the dollar, you would then be in a profitable trade. Here’s an example of a Forex quote for the euro vs. the U.S. dollar: The first currency in the pair that is located to the left of the slash mark is called the base currency, and the second currency of the pair that’s located to the right of the slash market is called the counter or quote currency. If you buy the EUR/USD (or any other currency pair), the exchange rate tells you how much you need to pay in terms of the quote currency to buy one unit of the base currency. In other words, in the example above, you have to pay 1.32105 U.S. dollars to buy 1 euro. If you sell the EUR/USD (or any other currency pair), the exchange rate tells you how much of the quote currency you receive for selling one unit of the base currency. In other words, in the example above, you will receive 1.32105 U.S. dollars if you sell 1 euro. An easy way to think about it is like this: the BASE currency is the BASIS for the trade. So, if you buy the EURUSD you are buying euro’s (base currency) and selling dollars (quote currency), if you sell the EURUSD you are selling euro’s (base currency) and buying dollars (quote currency). So, whether you buy or sell a currency pair, it is always based upon the first currency in the pair; the base currency. The basic point of Forex trading is to buy a currency pair if you think its base currency will appreciate (increase in value) relative to the quote currency. If you think the base currency will depreciate (lose value) relative to the quote currency you would sell the pair. • Bid and Ask price Bid Price – The bid is the price at which the market (or your broker) will buy a specific currency pair from you. Thus, at the bid price, a trader can sell the base currency to their broker. Ask Price – The ask price is the price at which the market (or your broker) will sell a specific currency pair to you. Thus, at the ask price you can buy the base currency from your broker. Forex trading is everything.

Fear of disruption. Fear of irrelevance. Fear of being left behind. Are we investing enough time in thinking about the long-term future of our businesses? Are we bringing enough diversity of thought into the discussion about the future? Are you shaping the far-off future?

“We’re going to be spending the rest of our lives in the future," says futurist and author Daniel Burrus. “Given that reality, why do we spend such little time or energy trying to anticipate what it has in store for us?”¹

With all the change going on in the world today, the future can seem a bit scary; disruption can come from anywhere. With so many day-to-day responsibilities, it can be difficult for professionals in our industry to extract themselves from the present and take time to shift into long-term thinking. Long-term thinking takes focus; it takes an intentional shift in mindset, and often requires purposely breaking away from the daily business environment.

During the Equipment Leasing & Finance Association's (ELFA) Operations and Technology Conference  (OTC) last September, we conducted, a fast-paced, interactive, two-hour mini-workshop titled, “The Future Lab.” In the Future Lab, 50 participants produced eight future customer-experience scenarios, all within about two hours.²

The thought experiments and group discussions in the Future Lab were designed to prompt long-term thinking and imagine possible futures for the equipment financing customer experience in 2025. To help the group shift into a futuristic mindset, we discussed the impact these five forces of change could mean to the industry:

Chart Deb Reuben Creative -- Forces of Change - Equipment Finance Advisor

In the Future Lab, wild ideas are welcome. So did we get wild enough with our imagination?

What Did We See?

What if we leverage biometric identification for an instant financing experience? What if we reimagine the origination experience from the decision to execution, enabled by future technology? In 2025, we see an equipment finance origination experience where we leverage biometric identification and data aggregation to bypass the traditional notion of a financing credit application. With contract execution completed by thumbprint, or some other biometric method, we see signatures disappear, enablng the entire process to be instantaneous for the customer at the point of sale.
What if the traditional role of the sales rep goes away? What if commercial equipment acquisition were more like consumer purchases on Amazon.com? What if, from sales through credit decision-making, we leverage proactive analytics data to transform the customer experience? In 2025, we see the sales process as we currently know it, replaced by AI. Acquiring commercial assets will be similar to what Amazon does today for consumers. People and systems drive Amazon's business. There are no salespeople that you are purchasing from, yet you love the experience, whether it's frictionless payment and purchasing, the speed of delivery, ease of finding the right products, or the low cost of all of that. We see a future where algorithms suggest the content and products you need commercially. The existing relationship model for selling will become very transparent and system driven, with everything custom tailored, and machine learning employed to help systems structure deals in flexible ways. Machine learning and systems will also impact the credit function, providing better insights and predictive analytics to make great instant credit decisions.
What if physical assets trigger specific types of transactions rather than people? What if we challenge our assumptions about asset replacement scenarios? What if we leverage sensors, big data, machine learning, wearables, augmented reality, and IoT concepts to create a frictionless asset replacement experience for the end-user? In 2025 we see that assets, not people, will trigger certain origination transactions. What if the asset reminds you rather than you having to remember? The transaction is processed through systems employing machine learning, advanced algorithms, proactive credit assessment, and notifying the end-user through an augmented reality (smart glasses) interface that their asset replacement is ready.
What if we apply sharing business models to commercial equipment finance? What if we leveraged technology to connect commercial asset needs with excess asset capacity? In 2025, we see asset sharing as common. Leveraging sensors, IoT, data, and advanced analytics, we see the creation of commercial customer profiles containing attributes of different customer needs as well as the capture of asset profile data and real-time metrics to create an ecosystem for commercial sharing of asset capacity.
What if we leverage technology innovation to create a new business model to enable financing of transportation outcomes? In 2025, we see us evolving to more than just a financing arm; we are enabling customer outcomes. It all starts with your mobile device, when the customer needs to get a load of goods from point A to B. Like ordering an Uber car, the self-driving truck shows up. After loading the shipment, a drone shows up to perform an inspection and verify insurance. With satellite and sensor capabilities, we know where the truck is and where it is going. With everything connected via the cloud, a single person back at the leasing company is monitoring all the action. Settlement for utilization and payment are executed via smart contracts on the blockchain.
What if we leverage blockchain to enable per-use financing with intelligent assets and blockchain-based smart contracts? In 2025, we see smart assets with blockchain-based contracts governing the use of the asset. For example, a "smart copier," connected via the cloud, would not be available for use if there were a violation of "smart contract" managed terms (rules).
What if humans are augmented by advanced technology to provide superior customer service experience? In 2025, we see a future where humans are still crucial to the leasing customer service experience due to asset innovation and extreme specialization. Employing digital interaction portals and blockchain-based smart contracts technology enhances the customer experience by giving the customer access to just the right information to meet their needs.
What if we leveraged blockchain to create a platform for bill presentment and payment. In 2025, we see a paper-free unified invoicing and payments experience, with a B2B platform allowing participants to subscribe to outsourced accounts receivable capabilities for the right to invoice customers.  Blockchain-based smart contractswould be there to manage the bill payment lifecycle.
Good questions can be like portals to future discoveries. While the storyboards are interesting, even more interesting are the new questions prompted by the diversity of thought and an environment where wild ideas are welcome.

Forward-thinking leaders build on these questions, continue to explore future scenarios, and discover actions to take today.

It takes boldness to challenge long-held assumptions, to break from status quo, and explore multiple wildly different future scenarios. Even in our short time together,  many of our lab participants challenged long-held assumptions.

Asking, What if?

As Erik Brynjolffsson stated in the book, The Second Machine Age: “Technology creates possibilities and potential, but ultimately, the future we get will depend on the choices we make.”³

By taking time to focus on long-term thinking, we can influence future outcomes by bringing new questions and considerations into our decision-making. What new products, processes, offers, or business model ideas will you discover by asking different questions about the customer experience of the future?

______________________________

¹ Burrus, Daniel. The Anticipatory Organization: Turn Disruption and Change into Opportunity and Advantage. Greenleaf Book Group Press
² For more information on the Operations and Technology Conference see: https://www.elfaonline.org/cvweb_elfa/cgi-bin/eventsdll.dll/EventInfo?sessionaltcd=OT18
³ Brynjolfsson, Erik. The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies. W. W. Norton & Company. Kindle Edition.

sumber:http://www.equipmentfa.com/articles/7982/imagining-the-future-of-equipment-finance

HALAMAN SELANJUTNYA:

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